Two paths, your assumptions

Sell or keep calculator.

Compare two paths on your own numbers: sell now under the rules for a contract signed today, or keep the property and sell later under the capital gains rules from 1 July 2027. The tool shows where the two paths meet; it does not tell you which to take.

The property

What you paid

The purchase price on your contract.

Purchase contract date

Used for the holding period, and to check whether rental losses on the keep path are held back under the rules from 1 July 2027.

What it is worth now

Your best estimate of today's market value, where a recent appraisal or valuation helps.

Buying costs

Stamp duty, conveyancing and other buying costs, which form part of your cost base (what the property cost you for tax).

Capital improvements

Renovations and additions you have paid for, not repairs or upkeep.

Capital works deductions claimed

The yearly building write-off claimed so far, which comes off your cost base.

If you keep it

Sell in

When the keep path sells, and the point at which both paths are compared.

Growth a year

For the keep path. An assumption. Change it to suit the property.

Net rent a year

Rent less running costs such as rates, insurance and management, as a share of the property's value, before interest. An assumption. Change it to suit the property.

Loan owing

Repaid from the sale on either path.

Interest rate

The tool treats the loan as interest only, so the balance stays the same until a sale repays it.

Selling costs

Commission, marketing and legal fees as a share of the sale price. An assumption. Change it to suit the property.

You

Return on your money, after tax

What money outside the property earns each year after tax, on both paths. An assumption. Change it to suit your situation.

Your taxable income

Your income before any gain or rent from this property.

Inflation a year

For the quarters whose index is not yet published, used for indexation, which lifts the cost base in line with inflation. It also turns future figures into today's dollars. An assumption. Change it to suit your situation.

Break-even growth

2.72% a year

The yearly growth at which both paths end level. Above it the keep path ends higher on your assumptions; below it the sell path does.

Sell now

$686,637

What you may walk away with by the year you chose, if you sell today and the rest earns your return.

Keep, sell later

$989,908

What you may walk away with if you keep it and sell in the year you chose, under the rules from 1 July 2027.

Tax if sold now

$65,375

Capital gains tax on a sale today, under the rules that apply to a contract signed today.

Keep less sell

+$303,271

The keep path less the sell path, in the year you chose; below zero means the sell path ends higher.

In today's dollars

+$236,915

The figure above in today's dollars, discounted for inflation at the rate you set, so you can compare it with money now.

This calculator is not intended to be relied on to make a decision about a financial product. Consider getting advice from a licensed financial adviser before you make any financial decision.

On these assumptions the two paths end level at about 2.72% growth a year; at your 5.4%, they end $303,271 apart after 10 years.

What each path may leave you with

Sold in	Keep, sell later	Sell now	Tax if sold then	In today's dollars
2027	$526,246	$508,209	$81,467	+$17,597
2028	$571,103	$525,488	$91,460	+$43,417
2029	$611,093	$543,355	$110,697	+$62,901
2030	$654,444	$561,829	$131,232	+$83,905
2031	$700,718	$580,931	$153,807	+$105,874
2032	$750,125	$600,683	$178,532	+$128,863
2033	$804,157	$621,106	$204,252	+$153,994
2034	$861,780	$642,224	$232,360	+$180,200
2035	$923,622	$664,059	$262,350	+$207,840
2036	$989,908	$686,637	$294,359	+$236,915

Sources

Rates last checked 25 October 2026.

How it is worked out

Builds your cost base: what you paid, plus buying costs and capital improvements, less the capital works deductions claimed.
Sell now: sells at today's value, less selling costs, repays the loan and pays capital gains tax under the rules for a contract signed today, which are the rules before 1 July 2027 until that date. What is left earns your after-tax return each year.
Keep: grows the value at your rate. Each year adds the net rent less interest, after tax, and that cash earns the same return. The loan stays interest only.
Gearing is borrowing to invest, and a property is negatively geared when its rent is less than its costs for tax, interest and depreciation included. If you signed the contract to buy at or after 7:30pm AEST on 12 May 2026, a yearly loss from 2027-28 is held back under the new rules instead of reducing tax on your salary, unless an exception applies. The law lets a held-back loss reduce rental profit in a later year or a residential capital gain; the tool carries it to the sale and applies it there.
In the year you choose, the keep path sells, pays selling costs and repays the loan. Tax follows the rules from 1 July 2027: growth to 30 June 2027 keeps the discount, with that day's value estimated on your growth path, and growth after it is measured from an indexed cost base, with the 30% minimum.
Every tax figure is worked out as tax with the amount, less tax without it, at your income, so it falls at your marginal rate, the rate of tax on your next dollar of income.
Compares both paths in the year you chose, then searches a range of growth rates for the one where they end level. That is the break-even growth.

Why these starting figures

The tool opens on example figures so you can see how it works. Rates and thresholds set by law are the published figures on the date shown. Every other starting figure comes with the reason it was chosen, and you can change any of them.

What you paid: Why this starting figure: the mean price of a residential dwelling in NSW, June quarter 2018.
Purchase contract date: Why this starting figure: the end of the June quarter 2018, matching the starting purchase price.
What it is worth now: Why this starting figure: the mean price of a residential dwelling in NSW, June quarter 2026.
Buying costs: Why this starting figure: NSW stamp duty on that price at today's general rates, a close guide to the duty paid in 2018; enter what you actually paid.
Capital improvements: Why this starting figure: starts at zero: enter what you have spent on capital improvements.
Capital works deductions claimed: Why this starting figure: starts at zero: enter the capital works deductions you have claimed.
Sell in: Why this starting figure: a ten-year comparison, long enough for the 1 July 2027 change to matter.
Growth a year: Why this starting figure: the annualised growth, before inflation, in NSW dwelling prices over the 20 years to June 2026. Two ABS series are joined at the December quarter 2021: the residential property price index for Sydney, which adjusts for the mix of dwellings sold, from June 2006 until it ended in December 2021; then the mean price of residential dwellings across NSW, which covers the whole state and is not adjusted for mix, to June 2026.; This starting figure is a long-term past average, not a forecast. A long period evens out strong and weak years, so it is a fairer starting point than recent years alone, but the future may be higher or lower.
Net rent a year: Why this starting figure: the NSW median weekly rent on new bonds (NSW Communities and Justice, $720, as at the June quarter 2026) over the mean NSW dwelling price (ABS, June quarter 2026), less running costs of 40.9% of rent, the share in ATO rental statistics for 2023-24.; This starting figure is a current figure, as at the date shown, not a long-term average or a forecast, and it can change over the period.
Loan owing: Why this starting figure: an interest-only loan of 80% of the price paid, the loan-to-value ratio above which lenders mortgage insurance usually applies.
Interest rate: Why this starting figure: the Reserve Bank's average rate on outstanding investor variable loans, as at August 2026.; This starting figure is a current figure, as at the date shown, not a long-term average or a forecast, and it can change over the period.
Selling costs: Why this starting figure: about 2.5% agent commission plus 0.5% other selling costs, from a 2014 Reserve Bank paper; no current official figure exists, so use your agent's quote.
Return on your money, after tax: Why this starting figure: the big banks' average 1-year term deposit rate (Reserve Bank, 5.00%, as at September 2026), less tax at a median earner's marginal rate of 32% including the Medicare levy.; This starting figure is a current figure, as at the date shown, not a long-term average or a forecast, and it can change over the period.
Your taxable income: Why this starting figure: the median taxable income of Australian individuals, 2023-24.
Inflation a year: Why this starting figure: the midpoint of the Reserve Bank's inflation target band of 2 to 3%, the default rate ASIC's calculator instrument and RG 167.106 also set.

What this tool leaves out

Owners other than you in your own name. Trusts, SMSFs and companies are taxed differently on a gain; the capital gains tax calculator covers them in outline.
New dwellings and other exceptions. The tool assumes an established home bought as an investment, so it applies neither the choice the law gives a new dwelling on a gain nor any exception to the rental loss rule.
Your home. The main residence exemption is not modelled.
Changes in interest rates or running costs. Net rent moves with value; the interest rate is held at the figure you enter.
The costs and risks of investing the sale proceeds, and the chance the return differs from your assumption.
Your goals, your circumstances and any reason to sell or keep beyond the numbers.

Questions investors ask

Does this tool say whether I should sell?

No. It lays two paths side by side on assumptions you choose. Which path ends higher depends mostly on growth, and nobody knows future growth. The decision rests on your goals and circumstances, best worked through with your accountant and, where relevant, a financial planner.

What is break-even growth?

It is the yearly growth rate at which both paths end with the same amount. If the property grows faster than that, the keep path ends higher on these assumptions; slower, and the sell path does. It is a way to read the result, not a prediction.

What changes on 1 July 2027?

From 1 July 2027, new rules change how investment property is taxed, and they are now law. For an established residential dwelling acquired at or after 7:30pm AEST on 12 May 2026, a net rental loss can no longer reduce tax on salary or other income. For a purchase, the date that counts is the date of the contract, not settlement. The loss can be used only against residential rental income and residential capital gains, and any excess carries forward to be used the same way in later years. Dwellings acquired before the cut-off, and new dwellings, are not affected by this rule, and some dwellings acquired later keep an earlier owner's treatment, such as one inherited from a spouse or transferred on a relationship breakdown. For capital gains, the 50% discount no longer applies to growth from 1 July 2027 for individuals and trusts. Instead the cost base is indexed, which means it is lifted in line with inflation, and resident individuals pay at least 30% in tax on the gain above inflation, with an exemption for people on listed income-support payments. For a property held on 30 June 2027, growth up to that day keeps the current discount. A gain on a new dwelling can keep the discount for the whole holding instead. Some details are not yet final, including what counts as a new dwelling, which has not been defined in law, and an optional way of splitting a gain either side of the start date, which is still in draft. A further bill before Parliament would change parts of these rules. Treat any result that uses these rules as an estimate, and confirm the position with your accountant.

Why can the path with less tax end lower?

Selling stops the property's growth and rent, and the cash then earns your chosen return. If the property grows faster than that return, keeping can end higher even with more tax at the end. If it grows slower, the reverse can happen.

Which date counts for tax?

The tool uses the contract date, not settlement. A sale contract signed before 1 July 2027 is taxed under the rules before that date. Your accountant can confirm the date that applies to your sale.

How is the value on 30 June 2027 worked out?

On the keep path, growth up to that day keeps the discount, so the tool needs a value for it, and it estimates one from today's value and your growth rate. For a real sale, a valuation as at that date is the stronger record. ATO guidance on how to establish it had not been published when these rules were last checked.

What does the tool assume about the loan?

It treats the loan as interest only, so the amount owing stays the same until a sale repays it. If you are paying down principal, the keep path would owe less at the end than the tool shows.

Where to next

If you want to talk the numbers through, we can do it with you, alongside your accountant.

Start the conversation→

This calculator gives general information only. Results depend on assumptions you set, including growth, rent, interest, inflation and the return on your money, and a small change to any of them can change the result; neither path is a recommendation to sell or to keep. It is not tax, financial or legal advice, and apart from the figures you enter, it does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. The rules from 1 July 2027 are law, but some details are not yet final. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Individual results vary. CHAD Property coordinates with accountants, brokers and planners and does not give tax or financial advice, so speak with your accountant before you act.

The tools on this page give general information only. Each result is an estimate, worked out from the figures you enter and the assumptions shown, using rates and rules as at the date shown. It is not a quote, and it is not intended to be relied on to make a decision about a financial product, a loan or your tax. It is not personal financial, tax, credit or legal advice, and apart from the figures you enter, it does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Rates, thresholds and laws change, and some details of recent changes are not yet final. CHAD Property is a buyer's agency. It does not hold an Australian financial services licence or an Australian credit licence, and it is not a registered tax agent. We do not advise on tax, lending, financial products or how to structure ownership, including through a self-managed super fund, a company or a trust; we work alongside the brokers, accountants and financial planners who do. Before you make a financial decision, consider getting advice from a licensed financial adviser, and check any figure here with a licensed or registered professional who knows your situation.